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[title] => 房地产加速“死亡”智能家居能否“救场”?
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[description] => 房地产降速刺激了整个家电行业的产业升级,同时智能家居同时也对地产行业提供新的发展方向。
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2009年到2018年家电行业的黄金十年,身处于这个行业的大大小小的家电企业,在这十年当中迅速崛起。因为在这十年有一个强大的引擎,在牵引着家电行业快速向前行驶——房地产。
据国家统计局数据显示,2009年全年全国商品房销售面积为9.4亿平米;2018年全年全国商品住宅销售面积14.6亿平米。
从2009年开始到2018年中间的这十年,全国每年商品房销售面积均维持在10亿平米以上。其中2010年10.4亿平米,2011年11亿平米,2012年11.1亿平米,2013年13.1亿平米,2014年12.1亿平米,2015年12.8亿平米,2016年15.7亿平米,2017年17亿平米。
十年间商品房销量接近 1.3 亿套。
如此巨大的房产体量,对于任何下游行业都堪称指数级拉动,尤其是家电行业,配合相关家电产业政策的刺激,从2009年到2018年中国家电市场零售额实现翻倍增长。
但是这种快速、大量增长,在近两年房产调控的影响下开始产生阻力。
据人民法院公告网显示,截止2019年11月20日,平均每天就有1.5家房产业企业破产倒闭,目前破产数量已达446家,成为历年之最。
随着地产调控政策出台,房地产行业增速放缓、回落,在失去相关产业刺激的家电行业的市场方向也从增量市场转入存量市场,对所有家电行业都提出严峻考验。
以往作为龙头产业房地产生存环境日趋“恶劣”,时下火热的智能家居产业能否与房地产行业间起到相互补益的作用?
据《2018中国智能家居产业发展白皮书》数据显示,中国智能家居的市场渗透率只有4.9%。虽然过去十年家电单品市场火爆,但是近年来智能家居市场却远没有达到市场预期。可见待开发潜力巨大。
房地产高速扩张期,对所有家电企业来说都是十分重大的利好,这其中不光是龙头稳赚,大部分中小家电类企业都收获颇丰,当然这其中不少都是在借着房地产的利好在出量,客观来说部分家电企业对于智能家居领域的关注度自然会下降,因为大量的市场需求亟待快速填满,所以很多企业追求快产快销。根本没有时间精力去沉淀下来搞研发、搞创新。
事实上所有产业都开始进入调整周期,如果既没有资金也没有技术,那么在这个产业调整周期谁就有可能成为被“调整”的对象,这对部分中小家电企业来说考验极大。而对家电行业的龙头企业恰恰正好相反,非但无损,反而有利。
比如美的、海尔这些行业龙头,有品牌、有技术、有份额、有资金,这样的企业即便进入行业调整周期不但不会有损失,而且还是一个再次壮大的机会,市场出清部分中小企业以后,空出来的份额这些企业就会当仁不让的全面接收。
大企业并购小企业的现象出现。这就是行业里的龙头优势。
10月30日美的集团三季报显示,营收671.48亿元,同比增长6.36%;归母净利润61.29亿元,同比增长23.48%;归母扣非净利润60.42亿元。同比增长27.16%。
同日海尔三季报显示,海尔智家营业收入1489亿元,同比增长7.7%,实现归母净利润77.7亿元,同比增长26.2%,另外智慧家庭生态品牌收入33.7亿元,实现增长55%。
在增量市场阶段龙头企业通常是两手并重的,一边做市场,一边投入经费搞研发创新,所以通常行业的走向都会掌握在龙头企业手里。即便当下房产市场开始进入稳调整期,但是家电行业依然可以在存量市场中找到增长点,同时赋能现有的地产行业。
一方面,由于目前智能家居在国内的渗透率远未达到预期,增长空间很大,在这种情况下,现有存量的房产可以依靠智能家居提升家居生活品质,目前消费者对智能家居、智能生活的意识正在提高。
另一方面,房地产行业加速淘汰竞争力弱的企业,这让留下的企业可以借助智能家居这一产业对未来房产行业提供设计出新的发展思路。
所以,房地产降速从另一个角度刺激了整个家电行业进行全面的产业升级,同时家电产业推进智能家居智能生活的同时也会对现有地产行业提供新的发展方向。
(图片来源:大作)
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